Sustituciones tácticas en el fútbol de élite
Un análisis de los equipos finalistas de la Copa Mundial de la FIFA 2018
Resumen
Introducción: El fútbol contemporáneo se caracteriza por una alta complejidad táctica y una intensa exigencia física, donde pequeñas decisiones estratégicas pueden impactar significativamente el rendimiento colectivo. En este contexto, la Copa Mundial de la FIFA es el principal entorno para observar las tendencias del juego, especialmente tras la introducción del cuarto cambio en la prórroga en la edición de 2018. Objetivo: Analizar la efectividad de los cambios tácticos realizados por las cuatro selecciones finalistas de la Copa Mundial de la FIFA 2018 (Francia, Croacia, Bélgica e Inglaterra), considerando la participación directa de los jugadores suplentes en goles y asistencias, así como clasificar las motivaciones asociadas a cada cambio. Metodología: Estudio cuantitativo-cualitativo, que analiza 24 partidos con base en datos oficiales de los ojeadores de la FIFA y observación sistemática de vídeo. Los cambios se clasificaron mediante análisis temático de contenido en seis categorías: necesidad momentánea de gol, necesidad técnica, necesidad física, control del tiempo de juego, entrada de nuevos jugadores y cambio táctico defensivo con marcador consolidado. Resultados: Los cambios se realizaron predominantemente por necesidad física, especialmente en las fases eliminatorias. Bélgica demostró mayor efectividad ofensiva con sus suplentes, anotando tres goles y dando una asistencia, mientras que Francia e Inglaterra no registraron contribuciones directas. Conclusión: La efectividad de las sustituciones en el fútbol de élite depende del contexto competitivo y de la estrategia del entrenador, considerando no solo los indicadores ofensivos, sino también el mantenimiento de la estabilidad táctica y física del equipo.
Referencias
Amez, S., Neyt, B., e Baert, S. (2021). The right man at the right place? Substitutions and goals in football. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 54, 101898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2021.101898
Anderson, C., e Sally, D. (2013). Os números do jogo. Editora Paralela.
Afonso, P., Forte, P., Branquinho, L., Ferraz, R., Garrido, N., e Teixeira, J. (2025). Shaping training load, technical-tactical behavior and well-being in football: A systematic review. Sports, 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/sports13080244
Bradley, P., e Noakes, T. (2013). Match running performance fluctuations in elite soccer: Indicative of fatigue, pacing or situational influences? Journal of Sports Sciences, 31, 1627-1638. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2013.796062
Bradley, PS, Carling, C., Archer, D., Roberts, J., Dodds, A., Di Mascio, M., Paul, D., Gomez Diaz, A., Peart, D., e Krustrup, P. (2014). The effect of playing formation on high-intensity running and technical profiles in English Premier League soccer matches. Journal of Sports Sciences, 32(13), 821-830. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2011.561868
Bardin, L. (2016). Análise de conteúdo. Edições 70.
Carling, C., Dupont, G., e Le Gall, F. (2011). The Effect of a Cold Environment on Physical Activity Profiles in Elite Soccer Match-Play. International Journal of Sports Medicine, 32(7), 542-545. https://doi.org/10.1055/s-0031-1273711
Casal, C.A., Anguera, M.T., Maneiro, R., e Losada, J.L. (2019) Possession in Football: More Than a Quantitative Aspect - A Mixed Method Study. Front. Psychol, 10, 501. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00501
Corral, J. del, Pestana Barros, C., e Prieto-Rodríguez, J. (2007). The Determinants of Soccer Player Substitutions: A Survival Analysis of the Spanish Soccer League. Journal of Sports Economics, 9(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002507308309
Chen, T., Chen, L., Li, R., e Lv, K. (2025). Dominant factors and optimization strategies of football substitutions in the Chinese Football Association Super League under the five-substitution rule. Plos One, 20. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0326656
Dambroz, F., Clemente, F.M., e Teoldo, I. (2021). The effect of physical fatigue on football players’ performance: A systematic review. Plos One, 17. https://doi.org/10.37766/inplasy2021.5.0054
Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) (2018). 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia™: Regulations and knockout stage format. https://www.fifa.com
Forcher, L., Altmann, S., Forcher, L., Jekauc, D., e Kempe, M. (2022). The use of player tracking data to analyze defensive play in professional soccer - A scoping review. International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching, 17, 1567-1592. https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541221075734
Gabryś, T., Chruściński, R., Garnys, M., Suva, M., e Švátora, K. (2025). The influence of national team coaches’ substitution decisions on the final outcomes of UEFA EURO 2024 matches. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2025.1573823
Garganta, J. (1997). Modelação tática do jogo de futebol: Estudo da organização da fase ofensiva em equipas de alto rendimento [Dissertação de Doutoramento em Ciência do Desporto. Faculdade de Ciências do Desporto e de Educação Física. Universidade do Porto]. https://hdl.handle.net/10216/10267
Garganta, J. (2009). Trends of tactical analysis in soccer. Revista Portuguesa de Ciências do Desporto, 9(1), 81-89. https://scielo.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1645-05232009000100008
Goes, F., Meerhoff, L., Bueno, M., Rodrigues, D., Moura, F., Brink, M., Elferink‐Gemser, M., Knobbe, A., Cunha, S., Torres, R., e Lemmink, K. (2020). Unlocking the potential of big data to support tactical performance analysis in professional soccer: A systematic review. European Journal of Sport Science, 21, 481-496. https://doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2020.1747552
Gomes, F.P., e Araújo, R.M. de (2005). Pesquisa quanti-qualitativa em administração: Uma visão holística do objeto em estudo. In Anais. VIII Seminário em Administração (SEMAD). Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Universidade de São Paulo. https://sistema.semead.com.br/8semead/resultado/trabalhosPDF/152.pdf
Gómez, M., Lago‐Peñas, C., e Owen, L. (2016). The influence of substitutions on elite soccer teams’ performance. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 16, 553-568. https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2016.11868908
Hills, S., Barwood, M., Radcliffe, J., Cooke, C., Kilduff, LP, Cook, CJ, e Russell, M. (2018). Profiling the responses of substitutes in football: A systematic review of the current literature. Sports Medicine, 48, 2255-2269. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-018-0962-9
Hirotsu, N., e Wright, I. (2002). Using a Markov process to model a dynamic sports contest to make substitution decisions. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 53(1), 88-96. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601254
Iglesias, B., García-Ceberino, J.M., García-Rubio, J., e Ibáñez, S. J. (2022). How Do Player Substitutions Influence Men’s UEFA Champions League Soccer Matches? Applied Sciences, 12(22), 11371. https://doi.org/10.3390/app122211371
Lago-Peñas, C. (2012). The role of situational variables in analysing physical performance in soccer. J Hum Kinet, 35, 89-95. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10078-012-0082-9
Low, B., Coutinho, D., Gonçalves, B., Rein, R., Memmert, D., e Sampaio, J. (2019). A systematic review of collective tactical behaviours in football using positional data. Sports Medicine, 50, 343-385. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-019-01194-7
Meyer, J., e Klatt, S. (2021). Impact of an additional substitution on player load and training tactics in elite football. Applied Sciences, 11(16), 7676. https://doi.org/10.3390/app11167676
Modrić, T., Veršić, Š., Alexe, D., Gilić, B., Mihai, I., Drid, P., Radulović, N., Saavedra, J., e Menjibar, R. (2022). Decline in Running Performance in Highest-Level Soccer: Analysis of the UEFA Champions League Matches. Biology, 11. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology11101441
Padrón-Cabo, A., Rey, E., Vidal, B., e García-Núñez, J. (2018). Work-rate Analysis of Substitute Players in Professional Soccer: Analysis of Seasonal Variations. Journal of Human Kinetics, 65, 165-174. https://doi.org/10.2478/hukin-2018-0025
Pan, P., Li, F., Han, B., Yuan, B., e Liu, T. (2023). Exploring the impact of professional soccer substitute players on physical and technical performance. BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation, 15, 143. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13102-023-00752-x
Tassi, J., Nobari, H., García, J., Rubio, A., Gajardo, M., Manzano, D., e García-Calvo, T. (2024). Exploring a holistic training program on tactical behavior and psychological components of elite soccer players throughout competition season: a pilot study. BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation, 16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13102-024-00811-x
Teixeira, JE, Maio, E., Afonso, P., Encarnação, S., Machado, GF, Morgans, R., Barbosa, TM, Monteiro, AM, Forte, P., Ferraz, R., e Branquinho, L. (2025). Mapping football tactical behavior and collective dynamics with artificial intelligence: A systematic review. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, 7, 1569155. https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2025.1569155
Zhao, W., Li, Y., Felix, D., Hallal, P., e Wang, C. (2025). Trend analysis of substitution characteristics in the final stage of the UEFA Champions League under the context of new substitution rules. Academic Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 10(3), 45-52
https://doi.org/10.54097/z616vn95
Wang, J., e Zhai, Y. (2025). Association between substitutions and running performance under the five-substitution rule: Evidence from the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Applied Sciences, 15(17), 9540. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15179540
Wei, X., Shu, Y., Liu, J., Chmura, P., Randers, M.B., e Krustrup, P. (2024). Analyzing substitutions in recent World Cups and European Championships in elite male and female football: Influence of new substitution rules. Biology of Sport, 41, 267-274. https://doi.org/10.5114/biolsport.2024.134755
Wu, J., Li, Y., Zhou, C., Xiong, X., Qin, X., e Cui, Y. (2024). Impact of substitutions on elite soccer team performance based on player evaluation system. Journal of Human Sport and Exercise. https://doi.org/10.55860/sbh12g81
Biografía del autor/a
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9754504493752790
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9255101210991391
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9255101210991391
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9754504493752790
http://lattes.cnpq.br/9840214095117786
Derechos de autor 2026 Lecturas: Educación Física y Deportes

Esta obra está bajo licencia internacional Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-SinObrasDerivadas 4.0.




