The Fallacy of Conjunction: How Were the Bets on the 2026 World Cup Matches?
Abstract
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, along with the sporting activity, brought extensive economic activity of great dimensions. Against this backdrop, bookmakers had to reinvent themselves by offering individuals new forms of betting. Human nature tends to underestimate the importance of logic and statistics, giving rise to cognitive biases such as the conjunction fallacy. Bookmakers maximize their profits by exploiting the implications of this cognitive bias for sports predictions.
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